We are now moving to the fourth quarter for 2025. There is an increase in uncertainties in the macro economy, with unpredictable changes in trade policies from tariff escalations and retaliatory measures. There are also indicators that long-term growth is challenged by waning productivity gains, aging populations, and underinvestment. There is therefore a need to continue to monitor for any changes in policies which may affect investments.
As of 17 September 2025, the Federal Reserve has cut the funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, the first change since 19 December 2024. The Federal Reserve stance was that uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. However, the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen. Lower job growth and higher inflation conflict with the Federal Reserve’s twin goals of stable prices and full employment. Therefore, they have proceeded with a 25-basis point cut to use it to help prevent the economy from getting worse.
Website: Fed approves quarter-point interest rate cut and sees two more coming this year
Do note that there are some uncertainties in the market, with the Federal Reserve on 29 September 2025 pausing its campaign of interest rate hikes. Officials voted to maintain the benchmark rate at its current level. The pause reflects a mixed economic picture. While inflation has cooled, it remains stubbornly above the central bank’s target. This has prompted a more cautious approach from policymakers.
Website: Federal Reserve Holds Steady, Signals Just One Rate Cut
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only.
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Singapore Savings Bond
The Singapore Savings Bond (“SSB”) for November 2025 issuance has a 10-year average return of 1.83%. As the SSB is backed by the Singapore Government and has a credit rating of AAA, for now this is one of the safest investments out there. Accounting for rounding and simplicity, 1.75% shall be applied as the risk-free rate for articles during this quarter.
Website: SBNOV25 GX25110W Bond Details
The daily September 2025 rates from MAS e-service website and noted that the 10-year average yield is as below for confirmation.
| September 2025 Date | 10-Year Yield |
|---|---|
| 1 | 1.87% |
| 2 | 1.86% |
| 3 | 1.89% |
| 4 | 1.86% |
| 5 | 1.85% |
| 8 | 1.82% |
| 9 | 1.84% |
| 10 | 1.81% |
| 11 | 1.79% |
| 12 | 1.77% |
| 15 | 1.79% |
| 16 | 1.77% |
| 17 | 1.75% |
| 18 | 1.77% |
| 19 | 1.80% |
| 22 | 1.80% |
| 23 | 1.81% |
| 24 | 1.79% |
| 25 | 1.83% |
| 26 | 1.94% |
| 29 | 1.94% |
| 30 | 1.91% |
| Average | 1.83% |
Summary
With an applied market risk premium of 2.50% and the risk-free rate of approximately 1.75%, this would translate to an expected dividend yield to decrease to 4.25%.
Take note that if there are assets with yields that may be significantly above 4.25%, it may also be accompanied with higher underlying risks. Investors should also not just look at dividend yield but also at the strength of the company, such as their management team, when making the investment decision.
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Website: Reasonable Dividend Yield 2025Q3 – 4.75%
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